Friday, January 11, 2008

Will Bisha be different from Tabakoto?

Eritrea has given mining license to Nevsun, reports mineweb. Previously mineweb reported

"Construction is expected to take two years with actual mining expected to commence in 2010. The feasibility study completed in Q4 2006 deems the project to be profitable throughout its entire mine life because of the low operational costs."

This upbeat assessment comes against the background of the loss-making Tabakoto mine in Mali that is also owned by Nevsun. Tabakoto's woes are attributed in part to unexpected increases in costs. Thus, one may wonder if anything has changed since Q4 2006, which might necessitate a reassessment of future costs and revenues of the Bisha project. Of course, this depends on accurate forecasts of future developments in world markets. What would be the likely path of capital costs in the period 2008-2010? And operational costs and commodity prices beyond 2010? All theses are affected by world-wide events, beyond the control of Eritrea's economy. For instance oil and commodity prices have increased in recent years due to strong demand from emerging markets, especially China and India, owing to their fast growing economies. The good thing is with modern financial engineering, it is possible to hedge inputs and outputs against price volatilities, if one wants to. Volatilities in the US dollar against other major currencies would probably not matter much, as long as imports of capital and materials for the project and mineral exports are all invoiced in dollar terms.

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